{"id":18159,"date":"2014-04-16T19:46:26","date_gmt":"2014-04-16T19:46:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/crees.org.do\/el-salvador-es-la-deuda-publica-impagable\/"},"modified":"2021-08-10T19:57:20","modified_gmt":"2021-08-10T19:57:20","slug":"el-salvador-es-la-deuda-publica-impagable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/crees.org.do\/?p=18159","title":{"rendered":"El Salvador: \u00bfEs la deuda p\u00fablica impagable?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Autor: Manuel Hinds<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Fuente: www.elcato.org.do<\/a><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Fecha: 28 Marzo 2014<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

El gobierno ha estado diciendo desde hace alg\u00fan tiempo que la <\/span>deuda<\/strong> (la misma deuda que \u00e9l mismo ha aumentado) ha llegado a ser tan grande que no puede manejarse sin tomar medidas dram\u00e1ticas. El gobierno teme decir cuales ser\u00edan estas medidas, pero hay rumores consistentes de que lo que planea hacer es expropiarle a la ciudadan\u00eda dos grandes activos: uno, los ahorros acumulados para pagar las <\/span>pensiones<\/strong> (apropi\u00e1ndose directamente de ellos) y, el otro, una gran parte de los ahorros bancarios a trav\u00e9s de desdolarizar al pa\u00eds y devaluar la nueva moneda.<\/span><\/p>\n

Nada justifica expropiar a los ciudadanos. Ellos son los due\u00f1os del gobierno, no al rev\u00e9s. Pero adem\u00e1s la situaci\u00f3n actual de la deuda no es insoluble. Como se ve en la gr\u00e1fica adjunta, otras administraciones salvadore\u00f1as resolvieron r\u00e1pidamente una situaci\u00f3n similar sin aspavientos a principios de los a\u00f1os noventa. La gr\u00e1fica muestra tres medidas de la deuda p\u00fablica<\/strong>: la deuda del gobierno central (la presidencia y los ministerios), la del sector p\u00fablico no financiero (el gobierno central m\u00e1s las instituciones aut\u00f3nomas) y la deuda total (que incluye la anterior m\u00e1s la deuda de las instituciones financieras del estado).<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/span><\/div>\n

Observe que como porcentaje del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB), en 1991 las tres medidas de la deuda estaban a la misma altura que ahora. Y los gobiernos de esa \u00e9poca redujeron el peso de la deuda inmediatamente, bajando su relaci\u00f3n con el PIB a cerca de la mitad para 1998. En esos a\u00f1os El Salvador obtuvo su calificaci\u00f3n de grado de inversi\u00f3n, que la perdi\u00f3 este gobierno.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Y esos gobierno no tuvieron esos logros a costa de insufribles sacrificios. Al contrario, la econom\u00eda, que hab\u00eda estado creciendo en promedio al 1,2 por ciento anual de 1983 a 1989 en t\u00e9rminos reales (es decir, eliminando el efecto de la inflaci\u00f3n), creci\u00f3 al 4,2 por ciento de 1989 a 1991, cuando todav\u00eda hab\u00eda guerra (o sea que el aumento de crecimiento no fue porque la guerra se hab\u00eda acabado si no por la aplicaci\u00f3n de mejores pol\u00edticas) y al 5,0 por ciento de 1991 a 1999, cuando la deuda se estaba reduciendo pr\u00e1cticamente a la mitad.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Tampoco lo hicieron a costa de sacrificar programas sociales. El gobierno actual se enorgullece de dar un vaso de leche en las escuelas parvularias. En los noventas, las Escuelas Saludables daban no s\u00f3lo un tiempo de comida entero sino tambi\u00e9n atenci\u00f3n m\u00e9dica a los alumnos de ellas. Y, mientras que la pobreza ha aumentado en el presente gobierno, \u00e9sta baj\u00f3 de 60 a menos de 30 por ciento de la poblaci\u00f3n en los noventas.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

As\u00ed, cuando el gobierno dice que la crisis es inmanejable, entienda que esto no es as\u00ed. Lo que quiere decir es que \u00e9l, el gobierno actual, no la puede manejar, y que para tratar con ella s\u00f3lo se le ocurre despojar de sus reservas a un mecanismo de pol\u00edtica social —las pensiones— y de una gran parte de sus ahorros bancarios a la poblaci\u00f3n entera. Es como un m\u00e9dico que viendo una herida modesta en un brazo, no sabe qu\u00e9 hacer y s\u00f3lo se le ocurre amputarlo. El problema no es la herida, sino el m\u00e9dico.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

Manuel Hinds<\/span><\/a> <\/span>es ex Ministro de Finanzas de El Salvador y co-autor de <\/i>Money, Markets and Sovereignty<\/span> (Yale University Press, 2009).<\/i><\/p>\n

Este art\u00edculo fue publicado originalmente en <\/em>El Diario de Hoy (El Salvador) el 26 de marzo de 2014.<\/em><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/path><\/svg><\/i> Vistas Totales 1,012 , Vistas Hoy 4 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Autor: Manuel Hinds Fuente: www.elcato.org.do Fecha: 28 Marzo 2014   El gobierno ha estado diciendo desde hace alg\u00fan tiempo que la deuda (la misma deuda que \u00e9l mismo ha aumentado) ha llegado a ser tan grande que no puede manejarse sin tomar medidas dram\u00e1ticas. El gobierno teme decir cuales ser\u00edan estas medidas, pero hay rumores consistentes de…<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

<\/path><\/svg><\/i> Vistas Totales 1,012 , Vistas Hoy 4 <\/p>\n

<\/div>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[22],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18159","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-articulos"],"yoast_head":"\nEl Salvador: \u00bfEs la deuda p\u00fablica impagable? | CREES<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/crees.org.do\/?p=18159\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"El Salvador: \u00bfEs la deuda p\u00fablica impagable? | CREES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Autor: Manuel Hinds Fuente: www.elcato.org.do Fecha: 28 Marzo 2014   El gobierno ha estado diciendo desde hace alg\u00fan tiempo que la deuda (la misma deuda que \u00e9l mismo ha aumentado) ha llegado a ser tan grande que no puede manejarse sin tomar medidas dram\u00e1ticas. 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